On Saturday, countrymen Wladimir Klitschko, the IBF/IBO heavyweight champion, and Sultan Ibragimov, who holds the WBO belt, will get together to unify those titles in New York City's Madison Square Garden in a showdown that will be televised on HBO.
WLADIMIR KLITSCHKO -420
SULTAN IBRAGIMOV +270
UNDER 9.5 ROUNDS -200
OVER 9.5 ROUNDS +150
KLITSCHKO (49-3, 44 KO's), the -420 favorite in the BetUS boxing betting odds, is generally regarded as the top heavyweight currently active, and has been referred to by some as the "real" heavyweight champion. That's a matter of opinion, and may have some validity (certainly the HBO announcers who hype him feel that way), but there is little doubt that there is no world-class heavyweight who has fought at a high level with more consistency or for as long a period of time. He is a two--time heavyweight champ, for those of you who ascribe some value to those things these days. Still, there have been doubts along the way as to his heart - fueled by a stoppage loss to Ross Puritty, a journeyman, in December 1998, and his chin - an argument buttressed by losses he has suffered to the likes of Corrie Sanders and Lamon Brewster, both of whom knocked him out. Even in victory, such as the win over Samuel Peter in September 2005, where he was knocked down three times, questions have been raised.
The truth is that Klitschko does not have an especially sturdy chin, but he has been resilient, coming back again and again to win big fights. In his last bout, in July of '07, he scored a stoppage over Brewster, avenging one of his losses. He is about 6'6", and for his size he is agile and skilled. He can throw a consistent jab, and has power in both hands - the right hand in particular. He can hurt his opponent with one shot, though he is more likely to hammer an opponent into submission gradually.
IBRAGIMOV (22-0-1, 17 KO's), a southpaw who is the +270 underdog at BetUS, has not exactly taken a rocky path to the "top." He was brought along carefully from the beginning, and critics would opine that he still hasn't tested himself against a true world-class heavyweight. In his first major fight, he was held to a draw by fringe contender Ray Austin a year and a half ago. He then won the WBO title with a decision over a lethargic Shannon Briggs in June of last year. And his only defense has been a decision over 44-year-old Evander Holyfield last October.
Ibragimov is kind of awkward, and has some ring savvy. He can throw combinations with quite a bit of speed once he gets his hands going, and he moves relatively well from side to side. Against Holyfield, he moved more than usual, which leaves questions about how apprehensive he's going to be against a much bigger Wladimir Klitschko. At around 220 pounds, Ibragimov certainly can't be considered a "big" heavyweight.
In analyzing this bout, I can help but reference Klitschko's pair of fights with another southpaw, Chris Byrd. Although Byrd was slicker and Ibragimov is crafty in a different kind of way, they both have something in common, in that they come from the left side and lack the kind of size that is really going to threaten Klitschko. When you look at it, the elusive Byrd should have had enough in his arsenal to keep Klitschko off-balance, and he certainly held a speed advantage. But for him there was no escaping Klitschko's size and reach (not to mention his strength and power) and there was no way he was going to make a dent because he didn't hit hard enough.
With Ibragimov, I think you've got roughly the same thing. Ibragimov isn't as fast as Byrd, although he probably hits harder. But unless he nails Klitschko with several shots right on the button, he's going to have an uphill battle if he wants to score a knockout. And though he has quick hands, he's got his work cut out for him in getting through Klitschko's guard.
I don't know enough about Ibragimov's chin to make a clear diagnosis, but I can tell you that he was hit with some straight right hands in the last round of the fight with Holyfield and was shaken up a bit. Klitschko's right is going to come with a lot more force.
I expect that Ibragimov is going to present himself as a moving target. But sooner or later Klitschko will catch up to him, and will hurt him when he does. I don't know when that will be, but if it doesn't happen like that, I'm confident that Klitschko can bully his way to a nod on the scorecards.
We're going with Wladimir Klitschko, the -420 favorite
